The principal climate changes projected for the region by the 2050s are:

The pattern of rainfall across the region varies due to the locality, with influences such as altitude resulting in reductions of up to around 5% in the uplands, and proximity to the coast resulting in reductions of up to around 10% on the region’s southern coastline from Tyne and Wear to Tees Valley.

The entire region can expect greater polarization of rainfall with increases in winter rainfall combined with summer decreases. The greatest percentage changes occur at the coast, however some of the greatest net changes will occur in the upland due to the vastly greater baseline rainfall.

There will be variability in extreme rainfall events, depending on parameter considered and location across the region. Some locations will show negligible change, other a small reduction but in some locations extreme events will increase by up to around 20% for some parameters considered.

Average daily temperatures will increase across the region throughout all seasons. Greatest net increases will be in summer (around 2.0 to 2.3°C) and the lowest in winter (around 1.2 to 1.4 °C). The current regional trend in temperature, where the coast is the warmest area of the region with temperatures reducing with progressive inland movement towards the uplands will continue.

With the expected increase in extreme hot temperatures of around 3% we can more regularly expect summer daily average temperatures reaching close to 25°C in many parts of the region. It should be noted that individual days will be considerably hotter than the average.

There will be greater tendency for events at or above the 28°C threshold temperature used for the definition of heatwaves.

The region-wide increase in temperatures will result in winter severe temperatures moving closer to the melt point but still remaining below zero, while in all areas except the uplands of Weardale and the Cheviot Hills spring temperatures will move above zero. This movement of sub-zero temperatures towards and even above the melt point means that a reduction in the number of frost events can be expected.

The increases in winter temperature and especially the increases in average daily minimum and severe winter temperatures nearing or in many cases rising above the 0°C will mean a reduction in the number of days witnessing snowfall.

Winter wind speeds cause the greatest disruption across the region. The projection is for negligible change in some areas, very small decreases in others and very small increases elsewhere. Due to these minor projected changes, it can be expected that the winter wind climate will continue to cause unwanted adverse impacts by the 2050s.

This increase in mean sea level will be felt relatively uniformly across the region’s coastline.

During large storm events, when the mean sea levels are raised by meteorological effects such as winds, waves and atmospheric pressure, surge levels will increase relatively uniformly across the region’s coastline.

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| Northumberland | Tyne & Wear | County Durham | Tees Valley |

 

NORTHUMBERLAND

Annual and Seasonal Rainfall
The Cheviot Hills and the surrounding upland areas currently receive the greatest amount of annual rainfall in Northumberland, and it is these areas can expect the greatest reduction in annual average rainfall across the sub-region by the 2050s, of around 3% and 5%.  At the inland and coastal locations, the reduction is around 1% and 3%.

As expected nationwide, future rainfall will become increasingly seasonal, with summer decreases and winter increases in rainfall.  The upland areas will also experience large increases in winter rainfall, of up to around 14%.  The lower-lying and coastal areas of the sub-region can expect summer decreases of around 25% to 32%. 

During autumn the whole of Northumberland can expect to witness a small reduction in rainfall, whereas during spring the sub-region can expect variable change of around -4% to +6%, which equates to a change of around -3mm and +4mm per month respectively.

 

Severe Rainfall and Rainfall Accumulations
The Cheviot Hills will witness an increase in 50% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) rainfall events across all durations (1-, 2-, 5- and 10-day), increasing in magnitude with duration length. In the uplands a 9% increase in the 10-day duration event equates to an extra 7mm taking the value for the 2050s to 89mm, with the 1-day duration event only increasing by 1mm by the 2050s.

The lowland and lower areas of the Cheviots Hills will see small increases in longer duration extreme rainfall events, although around Berwick-upon-Tweed the projections show a reduction of 2% in 1 day duration 50% AEP events, though this only equates to a change of 1mm and therefore is within the natural variability of the model.  At the coast, extreme events appear to decrease at the longer duration accumulations

The 5% AEP rainfall will increase in the southern reaches of the sub-region and to a certain extent at the coast, with the exception of the slight reduction in the 1-day event.  For the northern reaches of the sub-region, more variable trends are evident.

 

Snowfall
For snowfall, the EARWIG projections show that all locations within the sub-region will experience a significant reduction throughout all the seasons.  This does not mean that snowfall events will become less dramatic as severe low temperatures are still expected to be sub-zero and when coupled with the increased winter rainfall this may well mean that snowfall depths do not differ from those currently witnessed.  It is the number of days with snow that will reduce. 

Research has been carried out by the Scottish Executive (Scottish Executive, 2001) on the changing patterns of snowfall in Scotland due to climate change.  The findings of this study could be indicative of the Cheviot Hills as these upper reaches share similarities with much of Scotland.  This study reported that at sites lying in the altitude range 100 to 400m, there has been a significant decrease in the number of days with snow lying since the late 1970s. 

 

Wind
For future wind speeds EARWIG projections show that the magnitude of future changes is generally very small compared with the baseline values and no consistent trend is obvious.  The main conclusion, therefore, is that based on presently available modelling techniques, changes in average or extreme wind speed by the 2050s are likely to be small. 

However, the existing wind climate causes significant damage and disruption across the sub-region, particularly during winter, and therefore this will continue to be expected by the 2050s.

 

Annual and Seasonal Temperature
Average daily temperature across Northumberland can be expected to increase by around 1.7 to 1.8°C according to the EARWIG model, with UKCIP projecting a similar increase. 

When viewed seasonally, the average daily temperature can be expected to increase the least in winter (around 1.2 to 1.4°C), followed closely by spring (around 1.5 to 1.6°C) with the largest expected increases in summer and autumn (around 1.9 to 2.1°C). The summer and autumn increases are virtually identical in size, though summer will still be the hottest season due to its higher baseline values.

 

Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
The average daily maximum temperature again shows a consistent increase across the region with the coastal and lowland areas experiencing the same level of change as the uplands; approximately around 1.8 to 1.9°C. 

For maximum daily temperature, the summer can expect to see the largest increase; the uplands can expect the largest of these changes at around 2.5°C, compared to approximately 2.2°C across the remainder of Northumberland. 

Whereas the largest increase in maximum temperatures can be expected during the summer, the largest increase in minimum temperatures will occur during the autumn; around 1.9 to 2.1°C increases expected across Northumberland.  All the remaining seasons also experience increases in daily minimum temperature and in the uplands this has the effect of taking the winter average daily minimum value expected by the 2050s to above 1°C, from previously below zero.  This increase in minimum temperatures is likely to result in a reduced number of frost and snow days across the sub-region. 

 

Severe Temperatures
For the 5th percentile temperatures (see Climate Glossary), which represent the severe cold extremes, temperatures increase throughout all seasons across Northumberland.  In winter, 5th percentile temperatures remain sub-zero despite an increase of around 1.4 to 1.6°C.  Spring temperatures in the uplands also remain sub-zero in the 2050s, but coastal and lowland areas now see 5th percentile temperatures rising above zero during spring.  The whole sub-region can expect increases resulting in temperatures above zero in autumn for 5th percentile events. 

For the 95th percentile temperatures (see Climate Glossary), which represent the severe hot extremes, temperatures again increase across Northumberland in each season.  The greatest increases are expected in the Cheviot uplands during summer, with increases of around 3.0°C. 

 

TYNE & WEAR

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Annual and Seasonal Rainfall
The annual average rainfall falling at the coast within Tyne and Wear is less than that falling further inland at central Newcastle and Gateshead.  This variance will become greater in the future with around a 10% reduction at the coast compared to around a 7% reduction further inland. 

When this annual change is further investigated through examination of the seasonal averages, the coast will have more seasonal rainfall, with greater decreases in summer (around 37%) and increases in winter (around 21%) than expected inland. 

 

Severe Rainfall and Rainfall Accumulations
The 50% Annual Exceedence Probability (AEP) rainfall shows that an increase can be expected in Newcastle and Gateshead across all durations (1, 2, 5 and 10-day) and this may pose a possible problem for urban drainage networks and fluvial flooding issues.  The coast of the sub-region can expect the opposite trend, with a reduction in all duration 50% AEP events. 

The 5% AEP exhibits a similar pattern with a small reduction or no change at the coast and an increase across all durations further inland, again possibly highlighting a potential urban drainage issue.

 

Snowfall
Snowfall will decrease throughout all seasons, with winter seeing around a 75% and 45% reduction at the inland and coastal locations of the sub-region respectively. However, this is not to say that severe snowfall events will not occur as the expected increase in winter rainfall coupled with severe winter temperatures still below freezing means snowfall remains a possibility.

 

Wind
With regard to future wind speeds EARWIG projections show that the magnitude of future changes is generally very small compared with the baseline values and no consistent trend is obvious.  However, the existing wind climate causes significant damage and disruption across the sub-region, particularly during winter, and therefore this will continue to be expected by the 2050s.

 

Annual and Seasonal Temperature
The annual average temperature showed no variation geographically across the sub-region during the baseline period, and a consistent rise of around 1.8°C will occur across Tyne and Wear. 

Increases in annual seasonal temperature again show consistent increases throughout all seasons, with winter expecting the smallest increase (around 1.3 to 1.4°C), followed by spring (around 1.6°C), autumn (around 2.1°C) and then summer (around 2.1 to 2.2°C). 

 

Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
The change in average daily maximum temperature is greatest in summer and least in winter.  Daily minimum temperatures in autumn will exhibit the greatest change of all the seasons, with winter experiencing the least change.  Again, these changes are relatively uniform geographically across the region.

 

Severe Temperatures
During the severe cold periods, all seasons can expect an increase in temperature.  Under the 5th percentile (extreme cold) temperatures (see Climate Glossary) winter projections are for sub-zero temperatures still to occur, but they will be warmer than those which occur currently.  The increase across all seasons has the effect of raising the 5th percentile spring temperatures above freezing, with an accompanying reduction in frost and snowfall events.

For the 95th percentile (extreme hot) temperatures (see Climate Glossary), we see an increase, with summer expecting the greatest increase (around 2.8°C). 

 

County Durham

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Annual and Seasonal Rainfall
Weardale and the upland areas of the catchment receive the highest amounts of rainfall within the sub-region, with the lowland areas receiving slightly more than the coast.  The entire sub-region can expect a decrease in annual rainfall of around 4% to 5%. 

Future rainfall will become increasingly seasonal with greater winter rainfall and a reduction in summer rainfall and this can be expected across County Durham with a winter increase of around 8% and a summer decrease of around 29% in the uplands.

 

Severe Rainfall and Rainfall Accumulations
The 50% Annual Exceedence Probability (AEP) rainfall accumulations show no clearly identifiable pattern across the sub-region, although there appears to be a tendency for an increase in 10-day duration rainfall events.

The 5% AEP rainfall durations show a greater correlation with all duration events expected to increase in the uplands; with all increases in excess of around 8%. This highlights a possible future problem in this area not only for short, high intensity rainfall events but also for the longer duration fluvial flooding problems.

At the inland and coastal areas of the sub-region projections are more variable and no consistent pattern emerges.

 

Snowfall
The EARWIG projections show that all locations will experience a significant reduction in snowfall throughout all of the seasons that are currently subject to snow.  This does not mean that snowfall events will become less dramatic as severe low temperatures are still expected to be sub-zero and when coupled with the increased winter rainfall may well mean that snowfall depths do not differ from those currently witnessed, and it is the number of days with snow that will reduce. 

 

Wind
For future wind speeds EARWIG projections show that the magnitude of future changes is generally very small compared with the baseline values and no consistent trend is obvious.  The main conclusion, therefore, is that based on presently available modelling techniques, changes in average or extreme wind speed by the 2050s are likely to be small. 

However, the existing wind climate causes significant damage and disruption across the sub-region, particularly during winter, and therefore this will continue to be expected by the 2050s.

 

Annual and Seasonal Temperature
Temperatures will increase across the sub-region annually and throughout all seasons. The annual average temperature is set to increase by up to around 1.8°C with the smallest seasonal increase occurring during winter (around 1.3°C) followed by spring (around 1.6°C) with summer an autumn showing identical increases (around 2.0°C) in the uplands and summer increases peaking at around 2.2°C in inland locations.

 

Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
The annual average daily maximum temperature will increase by around 1.9°C across County Durham.  The summer shows the greatest increase in average daily maximum temperature of up to around 2.5°C.

The average daily minimum temperature shows an annual increase of up to around 1.7°C, with the greatest increases (up to around 2.1°C) occurring during autumn.   

 

Severe Temperatures
At both extremes of the severe temperature spectrum values can be expected to increase.

For the 5th percentile (extreme cold) temperatures (see Climate Glossary), values will increase, but they will remain sub-zero in winter, spring and summer in the uplands.  In the lowlands 5th percentile temperatures will only remain sub-zero in winter. 

For the 95th percentile (extreme hot) temperatures (see Climate Glossary), summer and autumn will experience the greatest increases, of up to around 3.1°C. 

Tees Valley

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Annual and Seasonal Rainfall
Tees Valley can expect large percentage decreases in average annual rainfall, with reductions of around 5% inland and around 9% at the coast. Tees Valley will still experience the lowest average annual rainfall of all sub-regions.

When rainfall projections are viewed seasonally, Tees Valley shows a pattern of increased seasonality. Winter rainfall will increase by up to around 20% and summer rainfall decrease by up to around 33%. Spring and autumn will also expect decreases, but of a smaller percentage value.

 

Severe Rainfall and Rainfall Accumulations
Whilst there is an increase anticipated in 1-day duration rainfall events and a reduction in 10-day duration events, there is no clear pattern in 2- and 5-day accumulations during the 50% Annual Exceedence Probability AEP events.

The 5% AEP event rainfall accumulations show an increase through the majority of durations across the region, the exception to this being the 10 day accumulation at the coast which is predicted to decrease.  These increases seem to be more marked further inland than at the coast. 

 

Snowfall
The EARWIG projections show that all regions will experience a significant reduction in snowfall throughout all of the seasons that are currently subject to snow.  The reductions show that snowfall amounts for all seasons except winter fall to negligible amounts.  This does not mean that winter snowfall events will become less dramatic as severe low temperatures are still expected to be sub-zero and when coupled with the increased winter rainfall may well mean that snowfall depths do not differ from those currently witnessed, and it is the number of days with snow that will most likely reduce. 

 

Wind
For future wind speeds EARWIG projections show that the magnitude of future changes is generally very small compared with the baseline values and no consistent trend is obvious.  The main conclusion, therefore, is that based on presently available modelling techniques, changes in average or extreme wind speed by the 2050s are likely to be small. 

However, the existing wind climate causes significant damage and disruption across the sub-region, particularly during winter, and therefore this will continue to be expected by the 2050s.

 

Annual and Seasonal Temperature
Annual average temperature can be expected to increase by around 1.8°C throughout the sub-region. The pattern in average seasonal changes shows autumn and summer exhibiting identical increase at the coast (around 2.1°C) but further inland summer can expect a greater increase when compared to autumn, around 2.3°C compared to around 2.1°C.

 

Maximum and Minimum Temperatures
The average maximum temperature change is expected to be least in winter, followed by spring, autumn and with summer experiencing the largest increase in average daily maximum.  This summer increase will be higher inland (around 2.6°C) than at the coast (around 2.4°C).

The average minimum temperature change will be greatest in autumn (around 2.0°C) and least in winter (around 1.2°C).

 

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To download the EARWIG results for your local area please click on the list/map below.

Alnwick District Council Berwick-upon-Tweed Borough Council Blyth Valley Borough Council Castle Morpeth Council Chester-le-Street District Council Darlington Borough Council Derwentside District Council Durham City Council Easington District Gateshead Council Hartlepool Borough Council Middlesbrough Council Newcastle upon Tyne City Council North Tyneside Council Redcar & Cleveland Borough Council Sedgefield Borough Council South Tyneside Council Stockton-on-Tees Borough Council Sunderland City Council Teesdale District Council Tynedale Council Wansbeck District Council Wear Valley District Council

 

 

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