North East Climate Change Adaptation Study - Impacts

Here you will learn about the impacts expected from climate change by the 2050s on industry and business.

This includes the following topics:

Business Parks and Industrial Estates;
Ports and Harbours;
Land Management.

The assessment is reported at Regional and Sub-regional scales only since further information would be needed regarding each individual asset or activity to enable local detail reporting.

Description

The principal industries and businesses in the region can be separated into manufacturing and service sectors.

The main manufacturing sectors are:

Chemicals and pharmaceuticals;
Automotive;
Defence and marine;
Food and drink; and
Energy.

The main service sectors are:

Tourism and hospitality;
Knowledge-intensive business services (banking, legal, accountancy and engineering consultancy);
Commercial creative (digital industries, television, film, music and media);
Health and social care.

The region boasts some of the latest innovations and leading centres of excellence in many of these industry and business sectors, including the Centre of Excellence for Life Sciences, the New and Renewable Energy Centre, and the Centre for Process Innovation.

The major employment sites in the region are concentrated around Teesside and the larger urban conurbations, such as Stockton, Darlington, Durham, Sunderland, Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Gateshead.

In addition to the major businesses and business centres of the region, another major area of business in the region will be the small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). According to recent government statistics, 99.2% of businesses in the UK are SMEs that each employ fewer than 50 people. These businesses are spread throughout the region and include local shops, small offices, car mechanics, subcontractors etc.

Business Parks and Industrial Estates
Business Parks and Industrial Estates are located throughout the Region ranging in size from a couple of units to very large trading estates such as the Team Valley Trading Estate and areas around Teesside.

The larger business parks and industrial estates are located closer to the key regional transport links such as Teessport, the Port of Tyne and the Port of Blyth, the A1 and A19 for the importing of materials and the exporting of goods, as well as proximity to the larger urban conurbations for the supply of goods, delivery of services and the available workforce.

The national Address-point Dataset was utilised to establish the location of business parks. This means that the exact nature of each business park cannot fully identified and therefore the generic problems that could affect a business park will be discussed to highlight the full spectrum of possible impacts.

Business parks generally consist of industrial units that vary in size from a small lock-up that may be used by one person to a large manufacturing set-up such as Nissan in Sunderland which is the largest car plant in the United Kingdom with 4,500 directly employed staff and additional contract staff. So business parks can range from a couple of small units of relatively small size up to a site with numerous businesses both large and small covering many square kilometres.

Ports and Harbours
Within the region there are around thirteen ports and harbours. The key ports for the region are:

Port of Blyth
Port of Tyne
Port of Sunderland
Teesport (incl. Hartlepool)

These ports handle the vast majority of the sea-going freight for the region and as such have the logistics and set ups to load/unload, store and distribute freight and cargo. Many businesses rely on the goods imported and exported through these ports. For instance, The Tyne Car Terminal at Port of Tyne, opened in 1994, is a 100 acre site used by Nissan mainly to export cars manufactured in Washington.

These ports generally have different areas allocated for the loading and unloading of different cargoes such as cars, bulk cargoes and containers, and a variety of dockside equipment is in place to facilitate this.

Land Management
Land management-related industry and businesses in the more rural areas of the region provide important contributions to the region’s economy in terms of agriculture, forestry, and tourism and recreation in particular.

Impacts

The impacts of climate change on business can be profound, including direct costs, uninsured costs, business interruption and repetition loss.

The major headlines for businesses from climate change in the region are:

Businesses that make long term investments and or are currently impacted by weather are vulnerable to climate change, especially infrastructure.
Businesses with global markets or suppliers may be affected by climate change in other countries.
Potentially commercial opportunities could be developed from increased summer temperatures or the germination of new technologies.
Climate change could affect the bottom line of businesses through impacts such as flooding.
Weather-related disruption to transport network affecting workers, haulage and delivery of supplies.
Heat effects on workers.
Heat effects on equipment efficiency and on computers.
Water resource issues (summer crop irrigation and livestock watering), winter flooding and summer wild fires in remote rural areas.
Climate change also appears to present increased opportunities and benefits the further up the chain and closer to the final customer a business is positioned; having greater flexibility to adapt to market demands and threats presented by climate change.

A report on the climate change threat to UK small businesses revealed 70% in high risk areas are unconcerned about flooding and 90% have inadequate insurance and is particularly . Findings also included that:

Less than one in three businesses have a contingency plan to cover business interruption
Only 8% of businesses in flooded areas received any form of flood risk warning
Just one in for businesses in flood risk areas perceive climate change as a real threat to their business
Businesses expect to recover from flooding within one month but in reality average recovery takes more than two months after flooding
Nearly half of businesses believe climate change is exaggerated

These findings highlight the high level or risk and associated impact due to climate change and especially with regard to changing peoples perception of climate change and the scale of impacts on these businesses. Failure to fully grasp these concepts could mean the end for many SMEs.

However, SMEs will also be able to seize opportunity from climate change as SMEs are ideally placed to create radically new innovations that open up entirely new markets. Due to there size they will be able to adapt to emerging markets and also to change quicker than larger organisations, if such benefir areas can be identified. .

One of the best reports that is currently available to assist you in business planning for the impacts of climate change is the recent report A Changing Climate for Business produced by one of the studie's partner organisations UKCIP. To negate the need for the repetition of information please follow the link to read this report in full.

In addition to the impacts to the management, supply chains and workers we have also examined the potential imapcts to the built environment of industry and business and this has been expanded upon below.

Business Parks and Industrial Estates
Business parks generally consist of large areas of impermeable paved surfaces such as car parks, standing areas for delivery vehicles, and the roofs of the industrial units themselves. This means that the majority of the area is impermeable and that the majority of rainfall is directed into the drainage system as direct runoff which means any increase in winter or storm rainfall will have a direct effect on the amount of runoff from any particular site. Pluvial (surface water) flooding could be a problem where the existing drainage system is not of an adequate size to deal with the increased flows and due to the flat impermeable nature of most business parks this could result in extensive flooding of properties. As well as pluvial flooding any increase in rainfall will cause increases in river flows and could result in the expansion of current flood zones which may threaten business parks not currently affected by flooding.

The large number of vehicles and parking spaces in business parks means that many will feature an oil interceptor as a way of preventing the pollution of watercourses and distributing oil and chemicals into the sewer system. Any increase in winter or storm rainfall may mean that larger interceptors may need to be installed to deal with the increased flows.

Increases in temperature especially extreme high temperature events may cause problems with the deformation of paved surfaces; especially in standing areas experiencing large axle loads, e.g. areas utilised by heavy goods vehicles.

In some locations, extreme wind speeds are set to increase, leading to increased wind loading. The lowland location of most business parks means that increased wind loading is unlikely to be a concern and many sites are located in built up areas, offering further protection.

Port Facilities
Due to the nature of their location, the port facilities will be primarily vulnerable to two aspects of climate change: high winds and tidal flooding.

The operation of the cranes at ports will be highly susceptible to increases in the frequency of strong coastal winds and storms. Cranes generally have a anemometer to monitor wind speeds with alarms sounding when a threshold is reached and in certain cases the crane will cease to operate when a further threshold is reached. At this speed it is usually only gusting and depending on the load being lifted and duration of operation work can occasionally continue, although this is at the operator’s discretion. This will be one of the key impacts for all port operations.

The cranes can also have problems with lifting heavier loads in strong winds as these can cause dangerous slewing (swinging). Operations will only continue at the crane operator’s discretion, and with potential increases in the frequency of stronger winds, this will inhibit the scale, and duration, of operations.

Further to the operational problems, is the potential impact of increased wind speeds on the structural integrity of the cranes at the port. This will affect both those under operation and those not currently being used. In fact presently this is potentially of more risk to those not in operation as these are likely to be older apparatus which are not being maintained on as regular basis. The structures are obviously designed to accommodate severe wind-loading, although significant increases in strong coastal winds and storms are liable to damage the crane facilities.

Flooding at ports will primarily occur either from high tide or surge levels or wave overtopping, or from the two in combination. This will become more frequent due to the rising sea levels, and extended flooding of quays would impact on port operations.

Flooding is likely to become more prevalent at the port due to a combination of issues. Obviously there are the predicted increases in sea level and wave activity, but in addition these aspects will have damaging effects on the current defence infrastructure. Breakwaters and sea walls will become less effective as the sea rises and due to the deeper water larger waves than are currently experienced impact on these structures. Increased damage and overtopping is highly likely and can already be seen to be affecting sea defences in the region.

Flooding associated with increases in fluvial flows may also potentially affect ports located within estuaries, such as Port of Tyne or Teesport. This is only likely to cause problems when in combination with high tidal water levels.

Ports are also likely to be affected by increases in rainfall and localised surface water flooding. The large areas of impermeable surfaces are may have insufficient drainage to deal with the increase in winter rainfall and especially any increase in the frequency and severity of summer storms. Any hard standing areas that are currently subject to surface flooding can expect this problem to worsen.

Land Management
The changing climate will lead to some impacts on land management in rural areas. Increased summer temperatures will lead to some remote springs drying out in summer, causing problems in watering livestock from natural sources and causing increasing on water supply for crop irrigation.

Also, with the rising temperatures, moorlands and fells will be tinder dry and far more susceptible to wildfires starting and more rapidly spreading out of control.

The rising temperatures will also bring more midges and ticks, with numbers increasing in general and the insects being present for longer durations of the year. Resulting from this, there will be increased tendency for vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue amongst cattle, sheep, deer and goats, and Lymes Disease amongst humans.

Livestock will also suffer directly from increased temperatures, potentially leading to reductions in fertility, loss of yield of produce, or in extreme cases increases in mortality.

Increased winter rainfall and intense storm rainfall could directly lead to runoff that will erode parts of the region’s countryside public footpaths and cycleways. These are key assets to the region’s tourism and recreation economy, and this erosion could be further compounded by the increased use of these facilities due to the increasing temperatures. Generally, the countryside cycle paths are of a basic design comprising hardcore and shale and most public footpaths are simple worn tracks, making them particularly susceptible to erosion.

With the changing seasons and temperatures, some invasive species, such as bracken, will become more prevalent and will displace livestock forage. This change will, however, also provide an opportunity for farmers to use different livestock species or to farm different crops that are more suitable to the warmer climes.

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Description
Northumberland’s economy is principally governed by public sector services and food and drink processing, but other important businesses include the Alcan Aluminium Smelter near Lynemouth, the Port of Blyth, Berwick Harbour and Warkworth Harbour. Tourism, agriculture, forestry and military uses are also important to the sub-regional economy.

In the south east of the region, regeneration is planned under an initiative named SENNTRI (South East Northumberland North Tyneside Regeneration Initiative).

Business Parks and Industrial Estates
There are no major industrial estates or business parks in Northumberland when compared to others in the region. Those that do exist are generally located in the east of the sub-region located close to the principal transport links.

Additional Key Sub-Regional Businesses
Lynemouth Power Station and the Alcan smelting works are located in Northumberland near Ashington and are a major employer within this area of Northumberland.

Ports and Harbours
Within Northumberland there are ports at the following locations:

Port of Berwick
Seahouses
Walkworth Harbour and Amble Marina
Port of Blyth

The Port of Berwick is the second largest Northumbrian port, handling in excess of 150,000 tonnes of cargo.

The activity with harbour at Seahouses has become increasingly dependent on the leisure and tourism sectors and is the closest port to the Farne Island with regular boast trips running during the summer. Over recent years some investment at the harbour has led to repairs of the quay walls and last year a repair was made to the outside of the harbour wall close to the lifeboat station. Currently investment is in place for the major repair and possible enhancement of the south breakwater at Seahouses, which is currently in a bad state of repair.

Both Walkworth Harbour and Amble Marina are currently affected by Siltation problems. Walkworth Harbour is affected by marine-borne sands at the mouth of the harbour, with the marine being impacted by river-borne silts.

The Port of Blyth Northumberland’s largest port, handling up to 1 million tonnes of cargo each year and offering a handling, storage and distribution services. The port has facilities for the import of bauxite for use at the Alcan smelting works, regularly brings in wind turbine blades for testing at New and Renewable Energy Centre’s (NaREC) blade testing facility in Blyth and also recently added a new quay and rail link to facilitate the importing of coal.

Land Management
Due to the largely rural nature of this sub-region and the type of dominant industry, ongoing land management is an essential activity.

Impacts

Business Parks and Industrial Estates
No major business parks or industrial estates are present in Northumberland but those that do exist and this includes the large warehousing and other facilities that are present at some sites such as the Port of Blyth, will be threatened by the impacts outlined in this section at a regional assessment level.

Port Facilities
The ports and harbours of Northumberland will be subject to the same impacts as those identified at the regional assessment level.

In addition to this Walkworth Harbour and Amble Marina may see increased siltation problems due to increased fluvial flows as a result of increased rainfall, bringing increased silts loads downstream.

Land Management
Impacts facing livestock farming include rising mean and extreme temperatures leading to increased heat stress amongst livestock in the field, in housing and in transport. This could lead to a reduction in fertility, a loss of yield, lower growing rates or lower egg production.

Under prolonged periods of high temperature, which are projected to increase in occurrence by the 2050s, this will lead to increased mortality rates due to cardiovascular and cerebrosvacular (e.g. stroke) effects, which are mainly associated with younger, fragile or older livestock.

Rising temperatures will also lead to an increased prevalence of midges and ticks and therefore an increase in the incidences of diseases such as Bluetongue and Lyme.

These climate changes will also benefit invasive species, such as braken, which will displace livestock forage, provide increased habitats for ticks and may cause long-term carcinogenic problems.

Increasing air temperatures will also increase water temperatures, reducing the levels of oxygen in rivers and potentially affecting fish stocks.

Calving and lambing will commence earlier in the year than at present due to the warmer winter temperatures.

Reductions in average annual rainfall and summer rainfall will have implications for irrigation of arable land and watering of livestock in areas fed by springs or groundwater.

Increases in winter rainfall and in intense rainfall events will result in increased incidences of livestock mortality.

For arable farming heatwaves and reductions in summer rainfall could lead to reduce yields and it will be increasingly difficult to maintain adequate irrigation all year round, especially in more remote areas. Wild fires could more readily extend from moors across arable farmland due to the crop being tinder dry.

The rising temperatures could enable growing of new crops such as maize or fruits such as oranges, peaches and grapes, opening up new markets.

Increases in winter rainfall could increase the likelihood of soil erosion and water-logging of soils.

Pests and weeds will become more prevalent due to rising temperatures and wetter winters.

Within the forestry industry rising temperatures could allow more frequent outbreak of pests, while the wetter winters and dryer summers will increase the likelihood of fungal diseases.

Minor changes in wind speed are unlikely to result in a major change from the present situation in terms of blown trees.

The rising temperatures and increased number of heatwave events will increase the likelihood of wild fires in adjacent moorlands spreading rapidly through forests.

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Description

Business Parks and Industrial Estates
Within Tyne and Wear there are a number of large business parks and industrial estates and these are generally located close to the main regional transport links. These include the Team Valley Trading Estate and the Nissan Car Manufacturing Plant in Sunderland which is the largest car plant in the United Kingdom with 4,500 directly employed staff and additional contract staff.

Ports and Harbours
Located within Tyne and Wear are the Port of Tyne and the Port of Sunderland.

The Port of Tyne is an established port with facilities including cargo handling, vehicle handling (exporting vehicles from the Nissan Car Manufacturing Plant in Washington and imports and exports in excess 470,000 vehicles per annum), a container terminal, international ferry terminal and warehousing and storage facilities. It has an adjacent railway terminal and dual carriageway access to the A1 and A19.

The Port of Sunderland comprises a 323m long deep-water quay, with associated storage and road/rail access, located along the Wear estuary. In addition the South Docks (Hudson and Hendon Docks) are extensive dock facilities with an entrance via the half-tide basin and lock system.

Impacts

Business Parks and Industrial Estates
In Tyne and Wear many sites such as the two ports or Team Valley Trading Estate in addition to all the other numerous manufacturing and warehousing facilities in the sub-region, will be threatened by the impacts outlined in this section at a regional assessment level.

Port Facilities
The Port of Tyne and the Port of Sunderland will be subject to the same impacts as those identified at the regional assessment level.

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Description

Business Parks and Industrial Estates
Business parks in County Durham are generally located in the east of the sub-region close to the regional transport links such as Dragonville Industrial Estate in Durham off the A1.

Ports and Harbours
The Port of Seaham is located within County Durham and offers 900m of berth for ships up to 8,000 tonnes. A road directly links the Port to the A19 and it also has a rail connection to the main line.

Land Management
Due to the largely rural nature of this sub-region and ongoing land management is an essential activity.

Impacts

Business Parks and Industrial Estates
Business parks in County Durham feature large warehousing and other facilities that are present at some sites such as the Port of Seaham or Dragonville Industrial Estate, will be threatened by the impacts outlined in this section at a regional assessment level.

Port Facilities
The Port of Seaham will be subject to the same impacts as those identified at the regional assessment level.