In this section of the website you can obtain a summary overview of the key impacts to current services, assets, communities, business and infrastructure that the projected climate changes will cause across the region by the 2050s. 

This section of the website contains:

• A summary of the main impacts affecting the region - this is provided as a Regional report.

• More detailed description of the impacts across each county - this can be found in the Sub-regional section.

If you wish to view more detail relating to the impacts within a particular sector of interest (e.g. transport or utilities) or relating to a particular environmental consequence (e.g. flooding, erosion or minewater breakout), this can be found under the section Impacts–Detail, which provides detailed results under the headings of:

Sector:

• Transport;
• Public Services;
• Utilities;
• Industry and Business; and
• Heritage, Tourism and Leisure.

Environmental Consequence:

• Flooding and Drainage;
• Coastal Erosion; and
• Groundwater and Minewater.

 

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The principal climate change-related impacts projected for the region by the 2050s are:

Changes in winter rainfall, extreme rainfall events, mean sea levels and surges will place increasing pressure on existing flood and sea defences, and cause more frequent flooding of presently undefended areas.  The standard of service provided by existing defence structures, where present, will reduce over time as the peak river flows and extreme sea levels increase with climate change, leading to increased likelihood of overtopping, or breaching of defences. 

Due to the topography of many of the river valleys within the region, there will not necessarily be vast additional expanses of land flooded, but rather those areas presently prone to flooding will become more frequently affected, particularly during winter months.  Regeneration and redevelopment in many river-side areas susceptible to flooding will compound this problem by increasing the assets at risk of such an event.

Increases in the frequency of flooding will lead to the following impacts:

• Increased incidence of flood-related fatalities and injuries;
• Increase damage (directly) to buildings and infrastructure;
• Increased damage (indirectly) through lack of business continuity planning and/or disruption to the transport network;
• Increased health and welfare impacts due to personal stress and spread of water-borne disease;
• Increased disruption to service provision, for instance home-help to the infirm and elderly in remote rural areas;
• Increased pressure on emergency response personnel coupled with finite resources such as boats and pumps; and
• Increased impact on critical infrastructure (e.g. power supply or sewage treatment works).

There could also be knock-on effects such as the potential for ‘uninsurable’ homes.

 

Rising mean and extreme temperatures, and increased incidences of heatwaves, will have negative health impacts, particularly on vulnerable members of society, such as the young, infirm and elderly.  The main impacts will be:

• Increased incidents of skin-related afflictions such as sunburn and skin cancer;
• Increased incidents of midge and tick bites, leading to increases in vector-borne diseases amongst humans and livestock;
• Exacerbation of respiratory problems;
• Greater discomfort to passengers travelling on public transport, especially trains where windows cannot be opened for ventilation and underground sections of the metro service;
• Greater discomfort to residents, school pupils, college and university students, office- and factory- based workers and other people in confined spaces, such as prisoners;
• Increased heart problems due to heat stresses and heat stroke;
• Increased circulation problems such as deep-veined thrombosis, due to reduced mobility of vulnerable people during warming weather;
• Increased mortality rates due to heat-related effects; and
• Increased fatalities or severe injuries due to misadventures such as tombstoning (diving into water from a height to cool-off).

All of the above factors will place increased pressure on emergency response personnel and resources, hospital staff and resources, mortuaries and cemeteries. 

These heat-related impacts due to the changing climate will be further exacerbated by the changing population demographics of the region by the 2050s, with more people in the most vulnerable age group of over 75 years by this time. 

This trend is shown below, for the population of England and Wales as a whole.

2003	2050

 

Rising temperatures and reduced annual and summer rainfall will mean that grassland and moorland will at times be tinder dry.  Where fires are started in urban parklands due to arson or carelessly discarded cigarette buts or in the remote moors and fells due to natural ignition or heather-blazing getting out of control, they will spread much more rapidly.  This will make tackling the fires more difficult, increasing threat to life and the environment, and placing high demand on the finite fire-fighting resources.

 

Increases in winter rainfall and intense rainfall events will lead to increased frequency of flooding form existing drainage systems, many of which are Victorian in age in the more urban areas of the region. This will be caused by surcharging and back-up flooding as the capacity of systems is exceeded. Along with the projected climate changes, this issue is compounded by the fact that most systems are designed to relatively modest standards (say 1 in 30 year return period events) and there is an increasing trend for floodplain redevelopment and paving of gardens to enable more vehicular parking at residential properties, which reduces significantly the permeability of the urban catchment and results in greater surface run-off into the drainage systems.

 

Rising temperatures will result in increased abundance and longer survival of midges and ticks that can spread infectious diseases amongst humans and animals.  Whilst some commonly cited vector-borne diseases such as malaria are problematic on a global scale they are highly unlikely to be experienced in the north east region by the 2050s.  There will, however, be increased likelihood of tick-borne diseases such as encephalitis and Lyme disease as well as faeco-oral diseases such as diarrhoea in humans, largely contracted in more rural areas.  Also in these areas, there is likely to be increased tendency for vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue amongst cattle, sheep, deer and goats. 

 

Rising temperatures will increase the number of breeding cycles of some unwanted pests and will also produce conditions more likely to be conducive to their presence and spread.  In particular rats and flies are likely to increase in urban areas as refuse is affected by high temperatures before it is collected and disposed of.  This impact will be compounded by the ongoing trend of reductions in frequency of collections in some local areas.

Elsewhere, changing wetting and drying patterns of structures associated with changes in rainfall intensity and temperatures will result in more wet rot and dry rot in buildings susceptible to water ingress due to lack of maintenance.  Also, there will be increased likelihood of insect infestations such as wood-boring beetles in buildings containing timbers, including many of the structures of key heritage interest across the region.

 

Increases in winter rainfall, temperature and (very small) winter wind speed will result in more damage to the fabric and structure of buildings through impacts such as material expansion, water ingress and dislodged elements.

Large parts of the region have antiquated (e.g. single-glazed) and poorly-maintained or derelict building stock, especially public-sector housing and schools, which will be particularly vulnerable to these impacts.

 

Rising temperatures will lead to uncomfortably hot working conditions in many interior-based businesses or services, meaning that efficiency and hence productivity will be reduced.  There will be increased incidences of computer and mechanical failures due to operating in high internal temperatures, especially in inadequately ventilated areas. Those businesses dependent on continuity of transport connections will also be impacted by increased frequency of flooding disrupting key road and rail arteries.

During events of a significant magnitude, which are set to increase in frequency due to winter flooding or summer heatwaves, there will be pressures on organisations for both responses and for information.  This increased demand will at times overstretch the available resources.

 

Rising mean temperatures will make the region an even more favourable destination for tourists as other destinations worldwide become uncomfortably hot.  This will have positive impacts on tourist-related businesses.

In addition, the warmer climate will encourage increased recreational use of the region’s beaches, riversides and upland moors and fells. 

 

Some of the additional or new resources required by the region to adapt to the impacts of climate change (e.g. Personal Protective Equipment, pumps or boats for flood responses) can be manufactured within the region and training can be provided in their use and maintenance.

Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will mean that arable land can be used for growing different crops, such as grapes or even oranges, placing new products on the regional market.

(Note: The region is also very well placed to capitalise on business opportunities associated with the mitigation agenda through its leading-edge work in renewable energy, bio-fuels, low carbon power generation and waste and energy management).

 

		With the anticipated impacts associated with flooding, heatwaves and wildfires in particular, the emergency services will become progressively stretched in responding to an increasing number of events.  There is a major risk that the services will become over-stretched and that insufficient resources will be available to adequately respond to each event and that the services will not be equipped with appropriate tools.  For example, in order to adequately respond to remote moorland wild fires, there is a need for off-road vehicles and supplies of water that can be used for fire-fighting.  Similarly, to assist with an increasing number of flood events, the demand for sandbags, boats and high-pressure pumps will increase. Numerous simultaneous incidents, as often happens with weather-related events, will further stretch the services, requiring a pan regional and inter regional working approach. Also, there is the risk that if services are increasingly deployed on ‘secondary events’ such as small scale local flooding or small parkland fires, then they may not be able to respond to a coincident major event.

 

In many parts of the region, some people are critically dependent on public, private or voluntary sector support in terms of medical and welfare assistance. This includes ‘at home’ services, such as Meals on Wheels or nurse/midwife/doctor visits to people’s homes, and transport to and from day-care or social activity centres. Increased frequency of flooding will adversely affect the ability of services to be provided to these vulnerable people, particularly those in remote rural areas.

At present across the region there are notable disruptions from wind-blown debris blocking road and rail networks, and striking power lines causing disruption to electricity supply.  Whilst the risk of this is only very slightly greater by the 2050s than the present day, the risk of such an incident coinciding with a flood event is greater (since the frequency of flooding is set to increase with significant changes in winter rainfall), placing people in need of medical and welfare assistance at even greater stress.

 

Much of the region has a former heavy-industry heritage and as a result there are considerable areas of land containing contaminated soils, usually engineered in some way to make them safe unless the soils are disturbed.  The significantly increased rainfall in winter will lead to some of this material leaching from contaminated sites or being eroded from sites adjacent to river banks due to increased winter flows through the river channel.  Similarly, increased sea levels will increase the release of hazardous material from former landfill sites located along the coastal margin, presenting both public health and safety and environmental risks at the point of discharge and more widely when dispersed into the sea.

 

Increasing mean and extreme sea levels will result in the landward recession of the coastline in areas composed of softer sediments like sand or mud, as opposed to harder rock.  This means that beaches and dunes will migrate landward, and soft cliffs will recede.  In many places, this will result in loss of open space or agricultural land, but elsewhere assets such as cliff-top roads and footpaths, as well as isolated properties or small communities will be affected.

 

Changes in growing seasons of flora and breeding seasons of fauna will have direct effects on maintenance activities such as grass and hedgerow cutting.  Crews will need to maintain parks and roadsides for longer each year.  They may also be constrained in the timing of maintenance and construction activities by elongating ‘wildlife windows’ when such activities are forbidden due to their perceived adverse wildlife impacts (e.g. nesting, roosting or over-wintering birds).  This causes impacts in terms of resourcing and programming of essential maintenance and construction activities.

 

Rising mean and extreme temperatures will mean fewer cold-related deaths and illnesses during winter months, but this will be far less than the adverse heat-related changes since winter temperatures will still, at times, drop below freezing.

 

The large increases in winter rainfall and the (very small) increases changes in winter wind speed will result in more storm-related debris. This will include (very minor) increases in incidents of blown-trees striking power lines and buildings and blocking road and rail networks; a presently common occurrence across the region during storms. It will also increase the blockage of drains, gulleys, culverts and trash screens by sediment, debris and litter, resulting in increased maintenance requirements in terms of gulley suckers and manual clearance to avoid the very real risk of blockage-related ‘back-up’ flooding.

 

Increased winter rainfall and intense storm rainfall could directly lead to runoff that will erode parts of the region’s countryside public footpaths and cycleways.  These are key assets to the region’s tourism and recreation economy, and this erosion could be further compounded by the increased use of these facilities due to the increasing temperatures.  Generally, the countryside cycle paths are of a basic design comprising hardcore and shale dusting and the public footpaths are largely simple worn tracks, making them particularly susceptible to erosion.

 

The large projected reductions in snowfall across the region will mean that snow-ploughing and gritting/salting to clear key road arteries of snow will be required far less frequently by the 2050s. However, there will still be some snowfall occurring, and therefore road maintenance crews cannot do away with snowploughs altogether. Also, winter rainfall is set to increase and with winter temperatures still dropping below freezing, pre and post gritting/salting against ice will continue to be required. More ‘marginal’ calls for gritting may well be expected and grit life on roads may be reduced by increasing frequency of wash off.

 

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| Northumberland | Tyne & Wear | County Durham | Tees Valley |

 

Northumberland is largely a rural sub-region that is dominated by upland hills of the Northumberland National Park, the lowland plains and the Northumberland Coast Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty.  To the south east of the sub-region lays the grouping of urban conurbations of Morpeth, Ashington, Blyth, Bedlington and Cramlington. 

As well as the general region-wide impacts previously discussed, there are a number of impacts specific to this sub-region.   The principal sectors that will be impacted by climate change across Northumberland include arable and livestock farming, forestry, recreation and tourism, and public services.

The farmers are at the ‘front-line’ in response to climate change in the respect that they notice even subtle impacts and have to adapt to them in order to remain operable.  Some of the greatest threats that they will face associated with climate change are:

• increase in vector-borne diseases associated with increased numbers of midges and ticks affecting livestock;

• changes to the growing seasons of crops and weeds;

• water shortages during summer causing problems for irrigation of crops or watering of livestock; and

• crop damage or livestock loss due to flash-flooding or wild fires.

Since large parts of Northumberland are rural, its inhabitants are dependent on continuity of service and infrastructure provision.  This includes home visits by social and welfare workers and bus services transporting teachers and pupils to and from schools.  Major impacts are forecast when flooding, wild fires or wind-blown debris blocks access routes due to this rurality, especially at times when electricity, water supply or other services are also disrupted by weather-related events.  If several rural market towns, where the main services are located, were simultaneously affected by flooding or other weather impacts, the county would be severely disabled.

The sub-region is also highly popular for tourist and recreational use and this is set to increase by the 2050s with rising temperatures making visits to key sites more attractive. The most popular attractions in the sub-region are Alnwick Gardens, Hadrian’s Wall, Holy Island and Kielder Water and Forest, all of which could be impacted by climate change in respect of plant growing seasons, footpath erosion, sea level rise and midges respectively.

Parts of the sub-region have historically been susceptible to flooding, with notable incidents recently occurring at Hexham, Ponteland, Morpeth, Haltwhistle, Haydon Bridge and Blyth.  With increased winter rainfall the frequency of flooding from rivers, streams and drainage systems to low-lying areas is projected to increase.  The town of Blyth is particularly susceptible to flooding by tidal waters and with sea level rise, the risk of this will increase.

The open moors and fells will be increasingly susceptible to wild fires due to vegetation being tinder dry in summer due to the combined effect of rising temperatures and reductions in average summer rainfall.

Looking at the region as a whole, climate changes may lead to similar types of impact across the region (e.g. heat waves, flooding) but the consequences may differ.  In Northumberland and County Durham there are fewer people and developments to be affected, but the human effect could be worse due to inaccessibility and rurality issues.  In contrast, in Tyne & Wear and Tees Valley, whilst there are more people potentially affected, they are more compactly located, making the provision of support and services to them easier.

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Tyne & Wear comprises the major urban conurbations of Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Gateshead, Sunderland, and North and South Tyneside.  Much of the region’s office-based business and services are located within this sub-region and much of the region’s key infrastructure network runs through it.

As well as the general region-wide impacts previously discussed, there are a number of impacts specific to this sub-region.  These principally relate to flooding, rising temperatures and wind speed. 

Urban drainage systems will increasing become surcharged and locally cause flooding to properties due to the increases in winter rainfall and storm rainfall and the finite capacity of existing systems.  There will also be increased frequency of overtopping-related flooding from the rivers, streams and sea to low-lying areas. 

Rising temperatures will cause discomfort for workers in offices and factories and will also result in increased maintenance commitments for parks, hedgerows and roadsides due to longer growing seasons of vegetation.  

Due to the coastal location and exposed topography of many parts of this sub-region, it is highly susceptible to wind-related impacts, including damage to building fabric and blocked road and rail routes.  Such impacts will marginally increase with climate change.

Much of the sub-region has a former heavy-industry heritage and as a result there are considerable areas of land containing contaminated soils, usually engineered in some way to make them safe unless the soils are disturbed.  The significantly increased rainfall in winter will lead to some of this material leaching from contaminated sites or being eroded from sites adjacent to river banks due to increased winter flows through the river channel.  Similarly, increased sea levels will increase the release of hazardous material from former landfill sites located along the coastal margin, presenting both public health and safety and environmental risks at the point of discharge and more widely when dispersed into the sea.

The threat of fires starting and more rapidly spreading will increase in parkland and open grassland due to rising temperatures making surrounding vegetation tinder dry.

Health services will be put under increased demand during summer months when there will be higher temperatures and when the propensity for heatwaves will increase.  The impacts will range from minor treatments (e.g. sunburn or fainting) through coping with major respiratory and heart problems associated with heat stress or sunstroke to increased mortality rates. 

One of the greatest threats to business continuity in the sub-region comes from computer server rooms overheating during heatwave events.  This is exacerbated by the tendency to place more hardware within existing rooms without improving ventilation and cooling.

Much of the housing stock in the sub-region will be adversely affected by climate change, with increases expected in terms of both damp and pests, particularly in the older and less well maintained stock.

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County Durham is the second largest of the four sub-regions and, like Northumberland, is largely rural.  The largest urban areas are located in the eastern sections and the sub-region extends to join the North Sea at its coastal margin.

As well as the general region-wide impacts previously discussed, there are a number of impacts specific to this sub-region. 

There will be increased likelihood of flash flooding in upland areas as soils become saturated during the winter due to increased rainfall. 

Nearly all the recent examples of metal mine water outbreak following intense rainfall events fall within this sub-region, especially in Upper Weardale.  Examples of coal mine water outbreaks are also evident in this sub-region.  Such outbreaks will continue to occur within the sub-region, with increasing frequency, causing pollution of receiving watercourses.

Remaining colliery spoil will progressively be transported from the foreshore, reducing the degree of protection provided to the backing sea cliffs which, when combined with sea level rise, will lead to increased recession rates of the coastline by the 2050s. 

Looking at the region as a whole, climate changes may lead to similar types of impact across the region (e.g. heat waves, flooding) but the consequences may differ.  In County Durham and Northumberland there are fewer people and developments to be affected, but the human effect could be worse due to inaccessibility and rurality issues.  In contrast, in Tyne & Wear and Tees Valley, whilst there are more people potentially affected, they are more compactly located, making the provision of support and services to them easier.

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Tees Valley is largely dominated by the industry and urban development based around the River Tees, but also contains other key towns and important transport infrastructure that is critical to the region’s economy.  The sub-region also extends to part of the North York Moors National Park.  Much of the recent industrial investment in the sub-region has centred on diversification from the traditional chemical process industries to include renewable energy (bio-fuels), low carbon power generation and creating energy from waste.

As well as the general region-wide impacts previously discussed, there are a number of impacts specific to this sub-region.  These principally relate to industry, urban areas, transport and social and welfare service provision.

Much of the chemical process industry, together with the Hartlepool Nuclear Power Station, is located around the banks of the River Tees estuary and therefore is highly susceptible to overtopping and flooding in the absence of adequate flood defence structures and bunds.  Rising sea levels will increase the risk of such flooding to these key industrial sites by the 2050s.

The transport network will become increasing affected by weather-related impacts causing disruption and delays in road, rail and air traffic.  This includes the Transporter Bridge, the largest working bridge of its kind in the world, which already is frequently closed to vehicles during high wind speeds, intense rainfall events or heavy fog.  Increased winter flooding and, in more rural areas, road tarmac melt due to rising summer temperatures will further increase the disruption.

Much of the housing stock in the sub-region will be adversely affected by climate change, with increases expected in terms of both damp and pests, particularly in the older and less well maintained stock.

There are often incidences of arson in public parks in the urban centres of the sub-region.  With surrounding park grassland and vegetation becoming tinder dry due to increasing summer temperatures, these fires will more rapidly flare out of control and endanger lives of the public or of fire fighters.

Emergency services co-ordination is computerised across the sub-region and this could lead to problems if electronics fail during times of heatwave events. 

Continuity of social and welfare service provision will also be affected by more frequent flooding blocking access routes.  This will be especially critical where services operate out from a central hub, which could become isolated by flood water.

Small becks run through parts of the sub-region and these are predicted to become more regularly blocked by debris in the main channels or in culverted sections, leading to increased incidences of back-up flooding to adjacent land areas.

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