study approach

The study comprised three main stages:

Stage 1 - Future Climate Change Projections

The aim of this stage was to identify the climate changes projected by the 2050s across the North East region.

Our approach has been to:

Characterise the existing (baseline) climate across the region using the most recent Met Office data.  This has identified the natural variability that exists in temperature, rainfall, snowfall, wind and other weather parameters due to the region’s altitude and topography, and the differences that are naturally observed between the upland areas, lowland inland areas and coastal areas of the region.
Collate and review findings from previous research projects and available literature relating to trends in weather patterns and projected climate changes by the 2050s across the region.  This has included previous regional studies (And the Weather Today Is…”, “Climate Change Adaptation on the Wear”, “Climate-proofing the Cheviots”) and regional press cuttings since the year 2000 to identify recent weather events that have led to damage or disruption.
Review outputs from the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme 2002 (UKCIP02) model projections for the 2050s medium-high emissions scenario.  These outputs are based on models which operate at a 50km by 50km scale of resolution, giving a good overview of projected changes across the UK, from which a good regional overview can be surmised.
Run the Environment Agency’s Rainfall and Weather Impact Generator (EARWIG) for ten locations across the region to downscale the climate changes by the 2050s, specifically for use in this study.  The EARWIG model operates at a 5km by 5km scale of resolution which has enabled more detail to be provided than has ever previously been available across the region.  The ten sites cover both urban and rural areas and extend from upland locations, through inland locations to coastal areas, giving a good geographical coverage of the region as a whole.

Stage 2 - Impacts Assessment

The aim of this stage was to assess the impacts of the projected climate changes on the communities, businesses, services, infrastructure and economy within the region. 

Our approach has been to:

• Collate data and information relating to the key receptors that are located across the region, under separate sectoral headings of:
  • Transport;
  • Public services;
  • Utilities;
  • Industry and business;
  • Heritage, tourism and leisure;
  • Flooding;
  • Coastal Erosion; and
  • Groundwater and Mine Water.

• Collate data and information relating to flooding and erosion, which will be a direct consequence of climate change that has cross-sectoral implications.

• Prepare a descriptive inventory and mapping of the key assets under each sector.

• Prepare a descriptive inventory and mapping of the key flooding and erosion risks across the region.

• Review available press cuttings to assess the recent weather-related impacts across the region and, where possible, their economic damages.

• Apply the professional expertise of key project team personnel to assess the impacts caused by the projected climate changes to each sector.  These personnel covered the following technical specialisms:
  • Climatologists;
  • Hydrologists;
  • River, coastal and drainage engineers;
  • Mast and tower engineers;
  • Transport and highways engineers;
  • Structural engineers; and
  • Geomorphologists;
  • Geotechnical engineers.

Supplement the impacts assessments with local expertise and knowledge from technical officers working for various organizations across the region.  This was achieved through consultation workshops held in Gateshead, Middlesbrough, Morpeth and Newcastle-upon-Tyne.  Invitees included local authorities, utilities companies, transport agencies, housing associations, and heritage organisations, amongst many others.  The aims of each workshop were to:

• Identify the assets managed or services provided by each organisation, noting locations, maintenance regimes, conditions, design standards, etc., where available;
• Identify any recorded or anecdotal trends in weather patterns over time;
• Consider historic impacts associated with weather events and assess how these may change over time with respect to climate change; and
• Consider adaptation that has taken place to date, and what might need to be done in the future.

• Provide an overview of the impacts assessment as a cross-sectoral summary of the key points for the region, each sub-region and each local area; and

• Report the detailed impacts assessment for each sector at regional, sub-regional and local detail scales.

Stage 3 - Adaptation Assessment

The aim of this stage was to identify suitable adaptation measures to counter the impacts across the region from the projected climate changes by the 2050s.  Particular sectors considered were:

• Transport;
• Public services;
• Utilities;
• Industry and business;
• Heritage, tourism and leisure;
• Flooding;
• Coastal Erosion; and
• Groundwater and Mine Water.

Our approach has been to:

• Review the latest cutting-edge research into adaptation in specific sectors, including the UKCIP Adaptation Wizard and outputs from Building Knowledge for a Changing Climate. 

The latter was a research programme led by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and UKCIP that comprised nine separate research projects, including:

• Built Environment: Weather Scenarios for Investigation of Impacts and Extremes (BETWIXT);
• Building Economic and Social information for Examining the Effects of Climate Change (BESEECH);
• Climate Change Risk Assessment: New Impact and Uncertainty Methods (CRANIUM);
• Adaptable Urban Drainage – Addressing Change in Intensity, Occurrence and Uncertainty of Stormwater (AUDACIOUS);
• Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE);
• Biological and Engineering Impacts of Climate Change on Slopes (BIONICS);
• Engineering Historic Futures (EHF);
• A Generic Process for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on the Electricity Supply Industry and Utilities (GENESIS); and
• Impact of Climate Change on UK Air Transport.

• Review the latest public-sector and private-sector industry best-practice guidance.

• Apply professional expertise of the key project team personnel used in the impacts assessment to identify suitable adaptation strategies and approaches.

Supplement the impacts assessments with local expertise and knowledge from technical officers working for various organisations across the region through Consultation Workshops held in Gateshead, Middlesbrough, Morpeth and Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

• Report an overview of the adaptation assessment as a cross-sectoral summary of the key points for the region, each sub-region and each local area.

• Report the detailed adaptation assessment for each sector at regional, sub-regional and local detail scales; and

• Provide case-study examples of how adaptation can be achieved in practice.